Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
It's just really hard to handicap races where trainers are thinking this much about pace strategy.
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When I project pace scenarios, I think in terms of probabilities or pluses and minuses.
I know that whatever I project as the most likely scenario is not going to happen all the time. Sometimes the opposite happens. Even more frustrating is sometimes I am right about the pace, but the race doesn't flow the way I expected despite being right about the pace.
I have some data I can use to help estimate how likely I am to be correct about the pace and how likely the race is to flow as I expect depending on the conditions. I try not to get too crazy about it because the details are always a little different. Pluses and minuses are good enough for me.
