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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Maybe this is actually most of my point. You cannot determine the night before which races will provide value and certainly not which single horses are going to be value.
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Yes Dave...but we live in an "exotics" world...
Your detailed examples in this thread -- along with others' obsession with creating an odds line -- assumes that we are all grinding win-bettors...and most of us aren't!
I agree that we should not love these "single horses", when we are betting to win...but can't we love them when we are betting the super-exotics...and create value around them?
In a super-exotic like the pick-5 (or even the pick-4...or the superfecta) isn't the "key" horse that we "love" alot more valuable than the 10-1 shot that we believe should really be 6-1?
I submit that, in these super-exotics, the horseplayer can still prosper by "loving" these key horses...and creating value AROUND them. It doesn't really matter where the value comes from...as long as it is there!
PS...
In the event that you disagree with me...please don't call this the WORST way to play the super-exotics. At this stage of my life...rejection of this sort can devastate me...
