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I am closer to the automated end of the betting types you describe. I find it plenty satisfying that my computer and the software I wrote years ago can find success in betting.
If I go out to the track and try to bet without my usual tools I don't really expect to win. I reserve my more serious action for the choices the computer provides to the ADW at home.
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Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see these complicated handicapping/betting infrastructures at work. There are certainly contributors to PaceAdvantage who do something along the lines of what I describe as an API bettor / model builder. But it is so insanely different from the PPs-in-hand or handicapping-program handicapper that there is much truth in the observation that it is not "really" handicapping. And the model building itself can be an exercise in technical complexity that makes your head spin. This is not the world of "What do you think about Pletchers drop down horse stretching out?" Not the world of "What do you think of Andy Serling's analysis of race 2 at Belmont?"
Think how handicapping has evolved. DRF-in-hand handicapping was dominant for so long. Sure you can do stuff with the DRF data on the page. Collect it to build track models. Keep track of jockey-trainer success statistics for automatic bets. Use paper and pencil systems and methods. Use the DRF to do stuff like Tom Worth's (and subsequently Jon Worth's) TIPS. Do full scale comprehensive handicapping like Tom Ainslie might have done. And so on.
Computers then let you type in 22.0, 45.2, 1:10.3 along with beaten lengths and Howard Sartin (love him or hate him) made picking pacelines a core component of handicapping. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Enter more complicated computer handicapping programs and data downloads (anyone remember 2400 baud modems?) and DRF-in-hand handicapping started to seem downright quaint. It was now all about analyzing screens and reports and output. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Programming platforms became more robust and high level and somebody not a professional programmer could now write programs. Spreadsheets and home database programs made data assimilation and analysis more accessible than ever. Many people on this board have jumped into the deep end on this, while others find things like spreadsheets helpful adjuncts. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Betting venues and bettable tracks have exploded, between brick and mortar facilities and ADWs on the internet. A Saturday in June may offer several hundred bettable races to a handicapper in the comfort of their home. Now you can specialize in dirt sprint cheap claiming races and have 25 races to choose from. Forget turf and all the rest. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Home handicappers build spot plays in their own databases or using one of several handicapping programs on the market. Press a button and out plops a detailed analysis of their performance, day by day. We've all seen examples of this on this board. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Large tournaments take off. Winning every single race you bet in a tournament with razor sharp accuracy may leave you mid pack (!!!). Its all about longshots; perhaps protecting your lead; perhaps betting fantastic longshots because that is the only way you can catch up. Win the right tournament and you are publicly crowned Handicapper of the Year. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Professional teams leverage the power of big data analysis to build sophisticated betting models and in some cases, bet over 100 million dollars a year into the pools. Rebates to big volume players adds fuel (gasoline) to the fire. But that's not "really" handicapping.
Smaller teams and even individuals do model based handicapping, now even using machine learning as a tool. Self taught or coming from a big data analytics background, these are people who may have never used a DRF to handicap a race and may be only vaguely familiar with the names Pletcher and Baffert and Saratoga and Tapit. But that's not "really" handicapping.
I have a perhaps irrational soft spot for the "purity" of opening up a DRF and going at it. Maybe its just nostalgia for the simpler days, even though I was never really a participant in those days. Whatever you call all these things people do in response to the question
How do I take money out of this race?, it is an amazing smorgasbord of approaches, all of which can be elevated to an art. Or crash and burn.
Ron Tiller
HDW
