I've always played Kentucky Downs as a horse for course type place, mostly because nothing else has worked for me there. You can't judge pace very well other than by looking at what happens to the speeds late in the race. The fractions are hand timed and aren't accurate at all. It isn't uncommon to see something posted like 25, 47 which we know isn't reality.
Multiplier never won beyond 1 1/8 miles so I think this was just too far for him. Manitoulin, the horse I made a small bet on hoping his last race was a function of the soft course and not him going off form, turned out to just be off form in my opinion.
My wife bet Arklow using TimeformUS...go figure.