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Buchan
It is possible the Adelaide runs were below par as the opposition was so weak and Black Caviar was not asked to do a lot. This is the view taken on the BHA Handicapper's blog. But the problem I have with this theory is that Black Caviar always travelled so easily in her races before. When she won the Lightning in 2011 (probably her best ever performance) it felt like she did it without being asked for much effort and was running within herself. Look also at other huge performances by other horses. When Hareeba was on one of his good days and smashing elite fields by many lengths it looked like he was doing it with minimum effort
If you look at BC's last run before leaving Australia she only managed to beat We're Gonna Rock by 1.3L. We're Gonna Rock has only won 4 from 14 and his best ever performance outside this race was winning an Adelaide G3 race (and Adelaide racing is about the weakest in Australia out of the major venues). We're Gonna Rock's form is on par with a horse like Soul whose peak run was a Listed stakes win in Melbourne. Black Caviar has beaten these two horses by 1.3L her last two runs and that form lines up perfectly
Black Caviar turns 6YO in about 5 weeks on August 1st. When Goldikova turned 6YO her form dropped noticeably and her final year of racing she was not the same horse as previous years. Goldikova never lost form as badly as what Black Caviar has but her performance levels did drop as she aged. Ageing is at least part of the reason for Black Caviar's performance level dropping. There may be other reasons too
But people who follow UK and USA racing don't know much about ageing with their top horses these days as they all retire after about 10 starts. Look at Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another retired after only 7 starts
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