Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobskim
The official fractions have the race slowing down. The pace figures of the leader from the 3/4 home are 91-88 while losing 6 lengths. Official fractions have the pace leader closing in 27 seconds, a slow time but the pace figures reflect something else. Just wondering what causes these changes?
Thanks
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I don't have the specifics for that day in front of me, but dirt races almost always slow down. It is very possible, for example, that a 22, 45, 1:10 would all be rated the same at some tracks even though the incremental shows a deceleration. The pace figures are based on the norm for the track and distance and surface.
This is the baseline for a mile on dirt at GP based on 1920 races...
Code:
22.23 45.37 69.16 94.10
So the incremental fractions look like this:
Code:
22.23 23.14 23.79 24.94
All of those would have the same rating even though they are "slowing down" as you say. They are slowing at the expected rate.
When they slow less fast, the figs would rise as the race went on even if the horses are technically slowing down.
There is also a pace variant involved which open up a whole different can of worms. Looking at those figures I would guess horses were going faster on the backstretch and slower in the stretch than normal, so the ratings are adjusted to reflect that. Something as simple as a moderate wind can cause that to happen. So can things like the sun shining on one side of the track and the other side being in the shadow of the grandstand.
There is a lot too it, but I try to take that all into account when making figures. Isn't that the whole point of displaying time as speed and pace figures, to make comparisons easier?
