Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
It's probably best to evaluate each quarter individually (or at least look for extreme quarters), but it's difficult to understand and measure how the endless combinations impact horses. It will make your head explode. The short cut trick is to look for horses within a race that had similar trips and compare how they did relative to each other and expectations. If 2 good horses made a huge move on the turn and packed it in, but a 3rd kept rallying, that 3rd horse probably did something good.
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cj, has already done a good deal of the work by classifying the different racing patterns into categories. The next step is to calculate win %, and impact values the same way one does with different values of any variable. One can further determine by regression analysis how the change in one variable affects the change in another. You have to do a little study in how to do the appropriate research method to do this.
Adding extra variables (such as field size or how the race was run) increases exponentially the number of combinations of variables studied and multiples exponentially the complexity. Better to add the various combinations of variables in later studies. That's just how professional researchers do it.
