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The place and show stats as well as the 2nd and 3rd favorite stats are fairly similar and the numbers are fairly close to what they should be.. Assuming the favorite wins 36% of the time there is a 64% chance it will lose. Of that 64% chance there should be a .36 *.64 chance he beats the rest of the field and comes 2nd. So he should come 2nd 23.04% of the time. So there is a 59.04% chance he should come 1st or 2nd so if he doesn’t he should have a .36*.4096 chance of running 3rd or a 14.75% chance of running 3rd. Thus when the favorite wins 36% of the time he should run 2nd 23.04 % of the time and he should run 3rd 14.75% of the time. SJK has the winning favorites winning 38.5% of races(which should mean they come second 23.68 % and that they come 3rd 14.68%. So 38.5% winning favorites should mean 76.88% itm% and he shows only a 74.25% itm%, so a couple percent was lost. I would attribute that to the win only nature of some of the favorites(horses that can easily win, but can also easily run off the board).
With 2nd favorites and 3rd favorites the assumption would be that the favorite win % would transfer over to the 2nd favorite beating the 3rd favorite and the 3rd favorite beating the rest of the field. If that is the case on average over all the races then the numbers for 2nd favorites winning would be the same as the number for 1st favorites coming 2nd and the number of 3rd favorites winning would be the same as favorites coming 3rd.This could be a faulty assumption, but from the numbers presented in this thread it doesn’t seem to be too far off.
Obviously venue and field size is going to play a huge part in percentage of winning favorites . Some tracks card bigger fields and competitive racing others have parades of obvious 6 horse fields.
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