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Old 10-08-2017, 02:45 PM   #12
TheOracle
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
I am not a stats guy but pretty close to it. I would say a sample of a few hundred races across a cross section of tracks. It is the cost benefit of doing it. the more data, the better.

My thing is if the take is 16 percent on Win, on average, and rebates come in at 5 (if we are lucky) or a bit less, and we have a positive on this which I doubt, it should be a blind bet. Then I can sleep better. I always want a blind bet. It is lazy but makes sense.
Hey Paul,

I went back to 2016 at Belmont with the coupled entries and due to a $35 number back in June 19, 2016 and a $18 number back on October 16, 2016 the win prices are inflated. The return for last year and this year combined is $199.70



From what I could see there were 184 horses coupled which means 92 betting interest. At $2 per win wager it would have cost you $184 so you actually made 8.5% on your money going back to last year in this situation

However, I did not include the 2/2B for 2016 or 2017

Saw some issues with my June data will repost shortly

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-08-2017 at 02:52 PM.
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