Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:
1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three
Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion
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Great post. If winning money were as simple as sniffing out weak chalks, even passably competent handicappers could quit their day jobs. But speaking just for myself, merely hating a popular favorite just has not afforded a profitable edge unless one of the "overlays" genuinely appeals in its own right. Thus I've come to interpret the impulse to "dutch" as a self-admission that antipathy toward the chalk is my ONLY workable insight to the race, so I just say no.
