Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
What indicator could you point to that shows horse racing interest has increased? Betting? No, because A) the number has declined by nearly 26% from a peak in the early 2000's and B) the number has probably decreased a hell of a lot more if it weren't for computer batch betting.
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Absolutely. Looking at year by year numbers from the
Jockey Club:
2004 - 15.1 bn
2005 - 14.5 bn
2006 - 14.7 bn
2007 - 14.7 bn
2008 - 13.6 bn
2009 - 12.3 bn
2010 - 11.4 bn
2011 - 10.7 bn
2012 - 10.8 bn
2013 - 10.8 bn
2014 - 10.5 bn
2015 - 10.6 bn
2016 - 10.6 bn
2017 - 10.9 bn
2018 - 11.2 bn
So steady decline from 2004 through 2011, and then staying pretty steady since then. That 2011-2012 timeframe is also when whale betting really picked up, and has certainly propped up those numbers.
Hard to get an accurate number on how much handle whales are putting in (they use so many different outlets, offshore accounts, what qualifies as a "whale" anyway, etc). But from my own experience I know it's at least 2 bn a year, and probably closer to 3.
So, remove 3bn from any of those recent figures, and you find that normal betting is down nearly 50% from 2004. The industry can pretend to ignore this and point at small increases over the last couple years...but under the surface, there's trouble brewing.
Even more concerning, these whales are close to a point of diminishing returns themselves. As more "dumb" money leaves the pools (either being chased away for various reasons, or voluntarily leaving for something more appealing like sports betting), you get to a point where the whales are cannibalizing each other. At that point they'll pack up shop and move to wherever the public goes. Then we'll see the bottom completely fall out of US racing, and everyone will pretend that they never saw it coming.
