Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I think the ability of the jockey should be factored into the overall rating for each horse, those horses converted to an odds line, and the odds line determining betting. At no point do I consider how much the jockey gets bet by the public. It will be factored into my betting line already.
Simple example, lets say you use two ratings, horse and jockey, and count the jockey for 20%. Horse A is rated 100 and Horse B is rated 100. Horse A has a jockey that rates 100 on ability and horse B has a jockey that rates a 50. Overall ratings are Horse A is 100 and Horse B is 90. Convert those to an odds line and see how it plays out. I now the public will bet Horse A more because of the jockey but I also know that it is warranted. You need a premium to bet on Horse B in my opinion.
My point is that at no point do I consider if the jockeys are overbet or underbet normally by the crowd. I think that will all come out in the wash with a good odds line and comparing it to the public odds. But I definitely factor in the ability of the jockey.
One thing I would caution is that you need to factor in the jockey in past races as well. If Horses A and B have been continually ridden by the same jockey in previous races, make sure those 100 ratings reflect that as well.
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I do not imply that the jockey should not be factored in the rating of each horse; instead what I am trying to say here, is that this factoring should not depend it his absolute ability but how this is been conceived by the betting crowd.
I am also saying that exactly the same principle applies to any other applicable handicapping factor that affects the betting patterns of the crowd.
Take as an example a horse that is offered at 4-1 odds; this means that the crowd believe that its winning chances are 0.2 or 20%. Whether this horse represents an overlay, underlay or a neutral betting proposition depends on how its handicapping factors are perceived by the betting public and not by the it’s (always unknown) absolute winning probability. The jockey’s ability is already part of the 4-1 odds since the crowd is well aware of its significance it the outcome of the race. The real challenge is not to quantify the ability of the jockey but to detect potential estimation errors committed by the crowd.
To keep our example relative to the topic of the thread, let’s assume that this starter is ridden by the absolutely best jockey that can be found in the circuit. The ability of the jockey alone, is not enough to derive any kind of useful handicapping opinion. It can very well be the case that the top ridder represents a very valid reason to bet against him; this happens when his superiority is so obvious that the crowd is mislead to the point of overbetting him while simultaneously creating value in some of the other starters. The reversed situation can very well occur in the case of the worst jockey who might be tremendously underbet converting his mount to an overlay.
Exactly the same behaviour applies to any other handicapping factor; think of females against males or a claimer who is trying stakes company for first time. In either case, it is well known that the winning chances of such a starter are significantly diminished but this does not necessary imply a bad bet; in many cases quite the opposite is true! It all depends on how the crowd will perceive each situation and to what degree it the bets will be optimally distributed or not.
Following this way of thinking, it is easy to conclude that what matters when it comes to the gambling aspect of the game, is not the raw ability of the jockey but the degree of the potential crowd mistake in its evaluation.
