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Thread: S&P top?
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Old 02-03-2018, 05:10 PM   #13
Saratoga_Mike
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.
I thought this was an interesting post, so I went back to market peaks from two past cycles (mid to late March 2000 and early October 2007). Volume did not spike at those junctures. I'm using S&P 500 volume in both instances. Perhaps Nasdaq volume spiked in March 2000. I'll need to check that.

If the long bond moves from roughly 2.8% (currently) to 4%, I'm not sure how that's equity friendly. MV=PQ. The Fed and other central banks have ramped "M" significantly over the past 10 years, and that ramp resulted in almost no inflationary pressures. Why? V (i.e., animal spirits [confidence] were absent). What if V now returns and starts to translate into a higher P (price/inflation). Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9% last month, the highest since 2009. Nominal GDP is arguably running at 5% to 6%. Given those two data points, a 4% long bond doesn't seem crazy to me.
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