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Old 09-19-2017, 02:11 AM   #232
Track Collector
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity View Post
you don't think i'm at least 25% there? especially since i never made an aggressive move towards the pot?

we were almost 200 deep too so i don't fault the villain for calling $9 at all.
When the villain calls your turn bet, the question that you need to ask yourself is what could he/she possibly have here. In 3-6 limit game the answer is that it could be crazy stuff. In 1/2 NL as I stated before, players have to play more straightforward because the mistakes are magnitudes higher and bankrolls can quickly disappear from bad play. With pocket pairs that do not match the board they are folding. The probabilities are high they have Ax, with lesser possibilities of 2-pair aces over, or 2 broadway cards with a gut-shot straight draw, or trips.

I am assuming the board run-out eliminates the straight possibility. A lead-out bet out of position runs the risk of being raised, so it eliminates some of the weaker holdings the villain might have. If the villain were bluffing, the lead-out bet is WAY too small to get folds. So the smallish bet was made either as a value bet hoping to get called, or for pot control to get to showdown with a reasonably decent hand where the villain still believed they had an excellent chance of winning. IF I had aces over I could see calling here, but not with less.

If I did my math correctly, it appears the villain barely made the required payoff vs. risk when choosing to set mine heads up, not exactly a recipe for success long-term.

Did you have 25% equity to call the river? Someone who has one of those calculators could tell you once you make an assumption of the villain's range.
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