Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper
I totally agree as they come up going forward each and every one of these horses should be given a long look when handicapping.
Looking at his five year numbers off the claim I come up with 34% (65 for 189) with an ROI of $1.90 per $2. I still don't think 189 is a big enough number for statistical significance but I would say holding above 33% over five years suggests his ability to identify horses he can move up is pretty strong.
Statistically, I'll leave it to others to determine whether it's an outlier compared to the mean and no way associated with chance.
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Back before trainer stats and move-up trainers were so widely publicized, I did very well following short-term trends with hot trainers. If someone wins 2 out of 3 off the claim (or the layoff for that matter), I'm watching like a hawk and jumping on that bandwagon right away (obviously you have to get your price; if it's Navarro at Monmouth and they're all 3-5 then why bother?). Statistical significance in this situation means zero. It's all about right now. (Edited to add---I didn't see CJ's post where he actually used Navarro as his example, but I guess we were thinking along the same lines of "overbet trainers")
