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Originally Posted by sjk
If your research indicates that horses that fit a particular condition run 3 points better than if they did not you can make that adjustment to thier expected speed rating.
Alternatively if you determine that a situation improves a horse's winning chances by 5% you can adjust the win probability and renormalize.
I do some of each.
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sjk,
To me that seems the crux of the problem.
If you take last time out winners they have, in UK, a "positive" IV but a "negative" A/E. The public can all see that the horse won last time out and its price falls (possibly too low) but its apparent chance of winning, compared to the field, has apparently risen, based purely on long term averaging study of winners last time out.
Any odds line adjustments could cancel out or make matters worse if the factor used was not the actual cause of a better chance. If the factor is not an independent one, it might be double counted or worse if you allow for it. So a winner last time out in a poor race, one that has been rested too long after win, one that got injured in winning that race, one racing at a different distance or ground condition is not so good as other last time out winners. You are then back to studying the actual horse in detail and possibly the many interacting IVs, A/Es which now seem not so helpful as at first sight they could be.
So, that is really what I am asking here, is there anything new that has made them more useful in practice?
