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Old 08-19-2007, 03:49 PM   #3
GameTheory
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
Quote:
Originally Posted by robert99
What is the definitions of the impact factor calculation introduced by Quirin?

Are there any other alternative definitions that are better?

How do these IFs compare to "true" win probabilities of a horse racing factor or can they be adjusted to do so and how?

What i am getting at, say, for example of last time out winners (LTOW) is that in some races there will be several LTOWs but in some races none at all. That needs correcting for, to find a "true" probability of the LTOW factor.
Well, there is no such thing as a "true" probability, but putting that aside the only way to adjust for the different scenarios precisely is to consider each scenario separately, i.e. create an IV/probability distribution independently for each different scenario you're interested in. So separate races where there is exactly one LTOW, compute the frequency, then do two, etc. Of course you need huge initial samples because your some of your subsets are going to be so small as to be meaningless otherwise...
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