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[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by storyline

You write the following contradictions - Not high on in terms of value, then - respect underneath, then - has upside, then - has a longshot chance of being a grade 1, then - will not make an impact, finally - as a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

Although I don't like the tone, nor 100% trust the sincerity of your post, I will be a good sport and try to expound upon what wasn't a very clear piece of writing.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Not high on or in terms of value, but you have to respect them underneath.

I expect and to be underlays. Although I expect them to be underlays, they offer enough hit percentage to use in a vertical exotic (trifecta, superfecta). It's almost impossible to make an exotic wager with only overlays, and even if you could do that, you wouldn't want to, as your hit% would be so low as to reduce your play to randomness. These are the types of horses I reluctantly include.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

MAGNUM MOON has upside, and has a long shot chance of being a Grade 1 type of horse who runs a big race.

He has upside in the sense that he has 'potential'. There is some unknown about the horse. He's trained by a top trainer. He's built like a classic distance horse (10f). He's shown some talent. This race has maybe 1 or 2 Grade 1 horses. Maybe none. I'd say Magnum Moon has maybe a 5%? chance (a long shot chance) to be Pletcher's poor-man's-Arrogate.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

It's more likely that he will not make an impact.

(An extension of the previous comment.) It is more likely that never contends for the win in the Rebel than it is that he will blossom into the top 3yo.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

As a fan I want to see him circle the field and draw off.

Separating my cold horseplaying opinions from simply being a fan of the sport; I'd love to see this horse defy my expectations and be a great one. The more the merrier.

Good night. Good luck if you play.