Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
A subject very near and dear to my heart. I use no figures in my handicapping so race watching and trip handicapping is where I get my "edge." I'll elaborate further on Sunday, but I did want to introduce a horse who was on my watch list after his last that is running tomorrow at Belmont.
This is the kind of horse I look for when it comes to bet backs, which is the ultimate goal of trip handicapping IMO.
In the 6th, #  Lucky Town. He broke well last time. And probably could have made the pace, but his rider yanked him back to 4th. He actually fell into a decent enough spot behind the leaders until he found himself directly behind one of the tiring pacesetters around the 3/8's pole. He shuffled from 4th to 8th in the span of a furlong and found himself in no mans land with a 1/4 mile to go. He had to wheel out into the 7 path as the eventual 1-4 finishers all got the jump on him and were in the midst of their rallies. He showed good courage to make up some lengths late, only beaten 4. Switches to the cold bug Diaz which should help the price.
This is the kind of trip I can't wait to bet back. Same class and trouble when the real running started. It left him with too much to do, but I saw enough in how he finished to think the trip cost him the race. |
A sincere question:
Without any sort of speed and pace figures...how do you determine if Lucky Town's "best race" is capable of beating today's field?
I'm not trying to be a smart-alec here...I am honestly trying to gain some insight from someone whose handicapping I respect.
