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but my wild swings (upgrading a perceived difficult trip(s) is often preferring a horse who looks bad on paper) would be far more prevalent and unprofitable without incorporating the comprehensive input of public odds.
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This is a question.
Let's assume you have a horse you believe had a terrible but somewhat hidden trip last out and he figures to get a great trip this time. Depending on the field he draws into, his odds today will vary.
If he draws into a tough spot he might be 15-1 or 20-1 and if he draws into an easy spot he might be 7/2.
To me, either way, if I am right about the trips there's probably value on him in both spots even if the public odds are telling me his probability of winning is different in those two fields. The only difference to me is that if he's 7/2 I'd be more apt to use him on top heavier and if he was 15-1 or 20-1 because of the tough field and might not win anyway, I'd use him a little less on top and use him 2nd and 3rd with some other horses trying to get that value on my ticket.
The probability of winning may change the way I structure the bet but it won't change the fact that I'm interested in that horse. So what I do really need the public odds for other than confirming what I already know, that one field was tougher than the other?
