Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Well, to each his own.
I enjoy my method of play because I came to the realization that this game is not about the horses. Its about those who control every aspect of a horse’s racing career and their personal financial goals. All the data crunching, statistical analysis and subjective interpretations of a horse's information pales by comparison to the objective realities of the monies being wagered on those horses at any given time.
How do I know this? Because I did play your way for 30 odd years with some respectable success. But not enough success to justify the long hours and sweat equity I would pour into this game. I now simply review all aspects of the market through a highly sophisticated tote analysis during any typical betting cycle that may interest me. It takes all of about 10 to 12 minutes of my time to determine if there’s a viable and lucrative play or not.
Since you mentioned Bill Benter (a player I highly respect) I suggest that you consider some of his thoughts:
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Thanks, Nitro.
What I got from Benter was the final nail in the coffin of specialization, at least for myself. I still specialize, but my wild swings (upgrading a perceived difficult trip(s) is often preferring a horse who looks bad on paper) would be far more prevalent and unprofitable without incorporating the comprehensive input of public odds.
Additional confirmation for me was when, some years ago Dave Schwartz posted a database from all races run in a year from the early 2000's. The incredible skill of the public in sorting out 5/2 vs. 3-1, 7/2 vs. 4-1, etc. correlated directly to their win pcts.
