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[csmith]

Originally Posted by duckhunter3

Well, I guess we are into semantics here, and saying the same thing different ways (at least I hope so). My approach is to objective assign a fair odds value to contenders- an objective (as much as possible) opinion of the horse's chances, for example, 2-1, or 33% chance of winning. Then, for win bets, I want post odds to be 50% above that or no play. so I have to have 3-1 post odds to bet my 2-1 fair odds horse.

One main reason for this is I KNOW my obective opinion can be off a bunch, and I want some wiggle room with a cushion over the long haul. Second, there are so many things that can happen in a race (vagaries, I call them), like jock losing whip, getting blocked, bumped, stumbled, saddle comes loose, etc., that again I want some cushion.

I gather you do the same thing. Anyway, your picks look interesting and best of luck with them.

Yes, I agree. We are probably saying the same thing but in different ways. In My Fair Odds that cushion is built in. If someone wants to use My Fair Odds and then add a certain percent I have no problem with that. I think each bettor needs to know how comfortable they are setting their own Fair Odds.
Thanks for the discussion and good luck in all your bets