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If you are going to play no limit hold 'em, you need to carefully watch each hand. Note not only obvious stuff like whether they bluff rivers (which even fish notice), but also non-obvious stuff:
1. Bet sizing. This is really important. Indeed, this bigger than basically ANY physical tell for most players.
Here are some examples:
a. The guy who bets big when he has it and small when he doesn't.
b. The guy who bets small when he has it and big when he doesn't.
c. The guy who sizes bets to try and produce a river shove when he flops huge and never does it on a bluff.
d. The guy who raises pre-flop small with a small pair or suited connectors and big with a big pocket pair or big cards.
e. The guy who has no idea about pot size and will always call $100 and fold to $175 (or whatever numbers).
f. Blocking bets-- small lead-outs on the river with middling hands to prevent having to call a big bet.
2. How they play big draws. Do they jam with them or call with them?
3. Do they limp re-raise aces and kings? If they do, their pre-flop raising range first into the pot is capped, which is just absolutely amazingly great information.
4. Will they bet their hand without a flush when a flush comes in, or without a straight when a straight comes in.
5. How strong does their hand have to be to fire three barrels?
6. Obviously, what percentage of hands do they voluntarily come into the pot pre-flop with, and what percentage do they raise and 3-bet with.
Now, put your opponent on a range based on all those things you carefully watched the last 3 hours, and do the math and calculate the pot odds, and you will know whether you can fold a strong hand to a big river bet.
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