Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
That makes sense.
Or at least if not a +overlay, a better value relative to other combinations involving the favorite first and involving the 2nd choice on top of the favorite.
There's the public boxing 2 or 3 horses rather than betting straight...
There's the public using the favorite on top and trying to make a value play...
Also the tendency to include more horses 2nd than first (123/1234 etc..). While this is less pronounced than say a superfecta, a minor effect is possible.
I don't notice it at a glance, and I'm not sure it is significant. Sometimes the hierarchy, including 1-2 is so obvious that it seems the worst value is the 1-2 punch (justifying those value hunters). Then you've sometimes got the whales smoothing (batch-betting) 'inefficient' combos. Then you've got takeout.
I'd be interested in seeing ROI stats on exacta combos.
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No problem.
60 total races
46 played
21 cashes(46%)
13 Prime(28%)
Prime Returns-3,289.50
Total Returns-3,497.50
+2,021.50=137% ROI
AVG Bet=32.08
AVG Return=253.03
7.89-1 AVG Return
That's my last 60 I made my own version of lines and grids from. I'm not a big bettor obviously so I hope that inspires some bettors that don't think their bankroll is an entitlement to get away from trying to straight up earn.
Robert known you a long time. I know we are good.