Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard
In one of his books Steven Crist wrote that fav over the second betting favorite is frequently an overlay, because bettors more often use value plays under the favorite. I'd imagine an examination of the will-pays would confirm this although I never seriously went down this road.
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That makes sense.
Or at least if not a +overlay, a better value relative to other combinations involving the favorite first and involving the 2nd choice on top of the favorite.
There's the public boxing 2 or 3 horses rather than betting straight...
There's the public using the favorite on top and trying to make a value play...
Also the tendency to include more horses 2nd than first (123/1234 etc..). While this is less pronounced than say a superfecta, a minor effect is possible.
I don't notice it at a glance, and I'm not sure it is significant. Sometimes the hierarchy, including 1-2 is so obvious that it seems the worst value is the 1-2 punch (justifying those value hunters). Then you've sometimes got the whales smoothing (batch-betting) 'inefficient' combos. Then you've got takeout.
I'd be interested in seeing ROI stats on exacta combos.
