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Originally Posted by Overlay
I understand what you're saying, but would such behavior necessarily be a "fallacy"? Are the outcomes of the events truly independent in the same sense that they would be in a game of pure chance? For example, perhaps the outcome of the prior race is indicative of a track bias that would be equally applicable to the next race, and it would be perceptive (not fallacious) to pick up on that, and to take it into account when handicapping and wagering.
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I agree, that's partially why I think it's interesting. Most dbases are built to treat races as independent events, it's more difficult to get them to answer questions like this. If they aren't truly independent, the win% might change if there really is something meaningful happening, I'm curious how the roi changes (if bettors are correct in whatever their perception about it is or not).
