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Originally Posted by chickenhead
Any evidence of the immediately prior race outcome affecting next race betting pools (basically the just ended event causing underestimation or overestimation of repeat occurring)?
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I don't think the sentiment of the crowd and a streak has an inverse relationship. For example if Baze/Hollendorfer have a losing streak, I don't believe the crowd rationalizes that the next one needs to be bet. I think the crowd will feel the pain and avoids the pair, and that's when a Baze/Hollendorfer play gets +5-1. When I express it this way, I as the individual am falling prey to the fallacy.
The crowd itself doesn't feel the gamblers sentiment. The crowd goes along with the trend, and avoids the bets when on losing streak, and bets when on a win streak. I believe the crowd will always overbet on a win streak or underbet on a losing streaks.
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Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
Last edited by pondman; 03-08-2012 at 09:41 AM.
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