Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


Thread: Justify
View Single Post
Old 02-20-2018, 12:43 PM   #26
dasch
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch View Post
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.
To be a little more precise, the number I ended up with(and again will say am very confident in) was equivalent to a win in a Santa Anita 3&up Alw2x, a VERY nice race for a debuting 3yo just not freaky.
dasch is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.