All who have been asking,
Since I received Power-Online I have been putzing with the IV%age Values and Min Starts. It's a terrific profit identifying tool but there are too many ties with the way I was trying to build my databases. I was using an IV% of 3.00 with Min. Starts of 13. I thought the 13 would help to avoid ties but some tracks run some distance/category combinations so infrequently that the scores come back as all 1.00. That makes the horse that wins, whichever one it is, as a Top horse when the reports are run. Needless to say, this skews the results.
So I decided to go back to the future and get smart (fat chance on that one). I went back and started building all of the databases again using only the Win %ages and ROI amounts.
In other words, I was following the pattern (not the exact method) Steve used in his incredible 500 race run. After rebuilding the databases I started testing with the Black Box as a confirmation tool. Only, unlike Steve, who used only the top 2 for verification I used the top three ala Steve Fierro's templates, although I didn't use the templates themselves. All I required was that after clicking on the Black Box that one of the horses in the race who was one of the top three in points in the consensus show a positive ROI. The horse with the highest positive ROI, if there were two, got the bet. If no horse showed a positive ROI then I passed the race.
Now before you go yelling that this is not a valid test, I shall admit that. One day is a test alright but not a valid statistical test.
Yesterday, I bet Arlington Park. It was not picked for any other reason than it was the first alphabetical track that had been completely converted back to Win %ages. That's all. I didn't look at the odds at all, probably should have, but I just wanted to do a short small money test on a track - hey, I needed the action. Here are the results:
Code:
APX 6/20/04
Race 1 Won $7.60
Race 2 Passed
Race 3 Passed
Race 4 Won $8.40
Race 5 Won $22.80
Race 6 Won $13.60 Also a cold Pick3 of $523.00
Race 7 Won $6.20 Also a cold Pick3 of $238.60
Race 8 Out
Race 9 Passed
Return $58.60
Bet Ttl $12.00
Profit $46.60 - I didn't bet the Pick3s :(
I'll let you figure the ROI
Will be looking for a longer term test but right now I'm just happy as a pig in slop.
I had promised JimG an update so here it is fella.
Bob
