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Old 08-21-2007, 10:39 AM   #32
nobeyerspls
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
Frsh fillies/cold colts

Quote:
Originally Posted by john del riccio
I'd be interested in hearing more about the "freshened fillies" filter. I think that when a f or m goes sour, they just don't seem to get back without a break and i noticed this from the owners side first but then picked up on it from the handicapping side as well. do you see any difference with respect to age ?

john
The only age consideration involves very young two year olds. Horses raced in April or May of their 2yo year may have been breezed before their knees closed. So if one wins at first asking and then is given time off I pass.
The others are most productive in dirt races up to seven furlongs. I like at least four weeks off, some display of talent earlier in their career, and decent workouts depending on the individual trainer. Blinkers on or off is a positive.
Restricted races are the most productive but it works all the way up to stakes races. The longshot cited had three months off following a couple of races where she was assigned zero beyers. The race she won following the layoff was nw2 claiming $10k at Fairgrounds. Her maiden win was in a $20k race in New York so she passed the talent question. She was working well in the morning (note to discount if the works are limited to three furlongs) and a low profile jockey broke her on top and she wired the field.
One problem that arises is that there can be more than one in a race that has been freshened.
For confirmation of this angle review the pp's for fillies in sprint races in the form and look for that line that shows time off. You'll see some nice prices or otherwise solid efforts.
Colts usually need a race. The exception are the male offspring of Meadowlake and Phone Trick who will run fresh. Might be a conformational thing as these are frequently the boxy typed who pound away at their knees.
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