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Originally Posted by acorn54
can someone please explain the logic of betting vertical exotics such as the pick 3 or pick 4. i can understand the pick six, as hitting that is a life changer and is like winning the lottery.
all the readings of intelligent writers who have studied the gambling side of racing, come across as saying, if you don't have a positive expectancy with the win bets you make, you will not have a positive expectancy with any other type of wager you make.
am i missing something, because with the low payoffs in the win spot after take out AND DIME BREAKAGE there is no way i come out ahead, whereas with my long shot plays, betting into large fields i have much more success.
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Yes, I think you are missing something here.
Theoretically speaking, what you are saying here is correct: you cannot come up with a positive return by summing negative numbers, thus your win bet expectancy seems to dictate the dynamics of vertical exotics. This seems simple and rational but also is nothing else than a fallacy!
This view fails to account for the fact that each vertical exotic represent a complete independent pool, who's payoffs are not a product of the individual win prices.
In vertical exotics what counts the most, is to hit at least one long shot which combined even with a sequence of terrible underlays can be sufficient to elevate your payouts to the extreme. Keep in mind that these kind of pools tend to not present effective markets, meaning that there might exist some combinations that will multiply the effectiveness of a mare win parlay.
The more visible a market is the more effective it will become. The win markets of three consecutive races, consisting of 10 horses each, will always be more effective than the derived pick 3. This is happening exactly because the 10 betting options in each race consist the most obvious and visible betting option, something that is driving the betting crown to bet each starter very close to each winning chances. The same does not apply for the P3 which consists of 1,000 betting options, as not only their number is 100 time larger than each individual win bet but on top of it, the corresponding payouts are not visible to the crowd, which now does not have the same capacity to correct the prices.
