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[MJC922]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

From the article:

Experts recently told the TDN that the most successful CAW players can consistently win at an average rate of around 92%. At that win rate, a 13% rebate (for example) would see the player enjoy a 5% profit margin.

According to wagering reports reviewed by the TDN, that win rate is an undercount. These reports show how Elite Turf Club players can win at an average rate in excess of 105%, even before their rebate from Elite is factored in. At this rate, the profit margin would be much better than many investment accounts.

There is no timeframe given. While it's completely believable to me that over any random, shorter duration timeframe, a CRW that works like Elite could pull 105%, in aggregate over a period of say a year, I'd bet very heavily against that.

The math is pretty simple. The more you bet, and Elite in aggregate together was only ~15% of the California handle, the harder it is to approach breakeven. I say only 15% because the reporting the last couple years has suggested Elite in aggregate is 30% or 40% of total handle, which always seemed like BS. Nobody can bet 40% and break even. The math does not work even with a rebate approaching no takeout.

At 15% of total handle, 105% feels do-able to me. It would mean they are likely doing less in the straight pools and are slaves to variance of the harder horizontal exotics, where they likely receive the best rebate. Factor in a chalky and low field size circuit like California, and I'd totally believe them smashing the P4/P5 type bets over a long period.

There's a couple things I took away from this article.

One is that most people believe that Elite is a bunch of different teams but as the article explains, one Elite team bet a whole bunch one year and then another team got a better deal and they bet a whole bunch the next year while previous team's handle shrunk. To me, it boosts the theory that there is no 15 different teams. It's all one team.

The other thing I took from this article is the odds drops which have wholly been attributed to CRW teams. When you dig into the data made available, the teams are 15% of handle. There is way more money 15% of any given win pool that is moving these late odds drops. Way more. So I think people need to update their priors on that one.

From a high level it may not seem like 15% would do it although if we were to look at it from a low-level and consider that 15% would be coming in the very last betting cycle and only then on a subset of horses they've identified to be 'live' (which is what typically? let's say maybe 2-3 horses out of the 8?) I can see where under those conditions substantial odds volatility would show up while the race is in progress. There are also barns undoubtedly betting so late the general public would be very hard pressed to react to it but the teams may be able to still get in last. I dunno, like I said non-issue for me anymore because I use projected odds and knew 6-5 on Fierceness 20 minutes to post. I'm good with that. Not an overlay, just probably trading dollars for me but for them it's what they live for given the rebate.