Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Fascinating! May I ask how often a playable race comes about? How many race cards did it take to come up with the 365 plays?
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I first learned of the possible legality of ADW in Missouri last July, and have proceeded carefully, giving myself the rest of the year to tinker with and tweak my approach while testing my self-control.
There may be a race or two a day where I hate the chances of a low odds horse, ideally two. Beat a favorite and one can redistribute roughly 35 pct. of winning chances to significant others. From there I can work with exotics (exactas for now). Steven Crist covered the inefficiencies present when one combines more than one opinion on a race. Beat two low odds horses and redistribute perhaps 50 % of winning chances, with a definite edge.
I probably spread about 3 horses deep in an exacta on average. Sometimes cold, sometimes 4 others around a key overlay horse, sometimes the fave under a valued longshot, etc., weighting the bets not always to produce equal return, but frequently playing a least favored combination only enough to break even while emphasizing the others. So that 365 likely represents about 75-100 races.
My best score during this period was the July 17th 2nd race exacta at Toga. In his debut, Kabob had been 3 wide advancing significantly better than any horse in the field while three wide on the turn, and continued to 7 widest entering the stretch while holding his ground with the rest of the field until very late. On the 17th I remember figuring him to save ground in a weak race behind a contested pace- a classic potential reversal of trips.
