Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyb
Can't give away the very best angle cause so many factors are in play before the race such as -
when the trainer enters he already knows his chances.
He reads the charts as we do.
My 2 cents:
Separate the Trainer into classes - in other words create a spreadsheet - what is his win % with NW of whatever. Same for classes of claimers, right up to preferred and beyond if you wish. The win % will give you insight as to what he's best at and what he has in the barn ready to race.
You'd be surprised. Keep in mind, the track config matters.
Here are some ofmy factors if I have a ready horse entered.
Post Position - notice this is number 1.....
Driver - number 2
Stuff we already know:
Speed - aged horses - what you see in the charts is what you get. The most important thing to remember - harness horses can race on or off the pace of the race. Most are pretty handy.
From my charts and you all know this:
Claiming 15 M no conditions - Average Mile for that class 1:52
An example: If a race for this class averages 56 or so to the half, and a horse is 5 lengths off the speed, to have any shot he will need to pace a 55 or better coming to the wire.
For my capping, I glance at the last 1/4, after I see my pick has the back half speed, if placed, to compete for the win or placing in the exotics.
so My 4 cents:
The trainer is well aware of this and the horse's capability. That's why in my humble opinion, the Entry Sheet, PP and Driver are major keys.
Pay special attention to the warm up, if possible. Is the trainer warming up the horse......(an old forgotten angle, still played out today esp at Woodbine)
Like I said, so many factors.
bobby
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thxs Bob for posting....
My harness days are long gone and most lightly never coming back...
But if I re-call things....do the horses come out a few races before their actual race?
With warm-ups...I recall people in the stands used to time them and compare to other days to see if horse is in better condition for today..
And do they still do warmups in opposite direction to fool the people timing them..
just some things i remember
mike
