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It appears you're citing Brisnet figures. Both Beyer and Brisnet incorporate the past performances of the animals racing. Raw time is only part of the equation. In the case of Jusify, he beat the highest speed rated horse which helps inflate his figure. So be it. Andrew Beyer himself effectively stated this after Bolt won the FrontRunner 0.8 seconds faster than older females the same day but garnered a 100 versus 105 for Paradise Woods. Beyer simply couldn't believe all the horses that filled out the super in the FrontRunner could have performed so well so he lowered the figure. Funny stuff. Imagine if he gave him what should have been a 108 (which would actually better support Justify's figure in the Santa Anita Derby). The smaller the field, the larger the potential error. This is Statistics 101.
To quote another author, "True speed figures don’t necessarily measure ability. They are merely snapshots in time".
Last edited by f2tornado; 04-23-2018 at 06:18 PM.
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