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Old 01-21-2019, 08:16 AM   #35
sjk
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 2,105
Jeff,

Looks like you have a fine measure to distinguish FTS.

If tote information is available it is going to give a wider scope to the adjustments you make to the other runners.

The difference between the .1 and the .21 is going to swing the odds on the others by around 10%. I require a much higher level of EV than the 1.16 so I am generally according a higher allowance for the public odds. A change of 10% in calculated odds is only going to affect plays at the margin.

Looks like FTS which go off at 3-1 or less win around 31% of the time and those which are odds on win around half of the time. (These are not exact stats; quick calculation). If I were up against one of these I would think it relevant to the odds line.
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