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Old 01-20-2019, 03:39 PM   #34
Jeff P
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
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In my most recent post, I accidentally hit the submit button and ran out of edit time before I was finished.

Instead of:
Quote:
If I were to skip identifying and handling outliers altogether, and if I weren't scoring rider, trainer, post position, workouts, breeding, etc. for FTS:

I'd end up treating all FTS pretty much the same. The above sample would be close to my baseline for every FTS -- and my models would end up generating a prob estimate for every FTS somewhere close to 0.10.

I meant to post the following:
Quote:
f I were to skip identifying and handling outliers altogether, and if I weren't scoring rider, trainer, post position, workouts, breeding, etc. for FTS:

I'd end up treating all FTS pretty much the same. The above sample would be close to my baseline for every FTS -- and my models would end up generating a before the odds are known prob estimate for every FTS somewhere close to 0.10.
I hope that makes sense.

-jp

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