Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Congrats Dave. That's a long time to be doing anything! At the risk of sounding like a fanboi I really enjoy your videos. There hasn't been one that I didn't learn some new things, and some of those things were...well...not what I would expect to be true. I recently watched Understanding Early Speed again, and am working my way through the 1-2-3 seminar now.
I'm not sure if you can answer this here but the factors that make up the handicapping objects in 1-2-3 are a bit different than what I would have expected based on the IVs in P&P. Is that a function of the game (data) changing in the last five years or the statistical method used?
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The reason for that is that we handicappers have a tendency to ask one question but provide the answer to another.
What I mean by that is, when we look for factors to predict "the profile of a winner that wires the field," the first (and logical) thing we think of is factors that pertain to the 1st call.
But that really wasn't the question, was it?
So, when we ask the question, "What makes a horse fit the profile of a 1st-call winner," obviously the ability/tendency to run to the front is important. That must be addressed.
But once we've determined that - usually through an analysis of running style, we will not usually find that 1st fraction ratings actually get them into the winner's circle; it will be other things.
This is why jumping all over the big F1 despite the fact that the horse does not figure to run to the front is generally a waste of time.
I hope I made sense with this. If not, feel free to ask again.
Dave
