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[MJC922]

I look at spacing between races. A layoff means different things for different horses. For some horses every race is practically a layoff; in that case a top effort and coming back quickly is something I'd play to regress. Recency is just a lot different than the old days due to medications and withdrawal times etc sometimes the extra time is needed to not get an overage from something they've been using during the time off 'therapeutically' we'll be kind to the HBPA folks. The barn is going to usually want money down when they have everything the horse 'needs' or at least what they think it needs to be more confident in the bet. That kind of timing just doesn't work so well off two weeks rest anymore and running dehydrated horses on lasix also adds to the time needed to recover. So the whole thing now is pretty much geared for the layoff being a positive but at the same time if I see a horse running consistently every 3 weeks or so and then is suddenly off for 12 I'm looking at that differently. Yes of course there's all kinds of other stuff you can bring to bear, is it taking money, who is riding, paddock and post parade etc. There's a ton of stuff there which can be 'tells' for people who know what to look for and have those kinds of skill sets.