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Old 02-06-2019, 09:53 AM   #23
cutchemist42
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,114
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I don't use class pars, I use baselines. They are based on the optimal percentage the winner runs for each fraction at each distance / surface combination at each track.

Code:
    6.0     22.00     44.33       68.34
    6.5     21.81     44.12       74.45
    7.0     22.62     44.84       80.98
That is a snippet from Saratoga on dirt. As an example, the optimal percentage to run the opening quarter at 6f is 22.00 / 68.34 = 0.3219. So, if a race were run with a final time of 1:11.00 (71 seconds), the optimal first quarter would be 71 x 0.3219 = 22.86.

That is the simplified version. Pace variants come into play as well but that is another story.
How wide is that range of opening quarters that a winner runs?
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