Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Note on TB Derby and Wood.
I have Vino a cut below the rest too but looking at these 2 races I have suspended all analysis related to the TB Derby. The slow pace and merry go round in which nobody made up any ground was a joke. The SF Davis was the better TB race and the derby was a bad time for Flameaway to try rating tactics. He is better than Quip and we witnessed that in the Blue Grass IMO as Good Magic had a tough time losing him. Vino Rosso also had run a lifetime top in the SF Davis and could have taken a step back in the TB Derby especially under those conditions. The Wood while being a 2nd rate haven for a while was run in a legitimate pace. As much as players highlight closers that finished solidly against slow paces I think it is equally important that a closer be able to have the talent to run down a fast pace. A collapsing front end doesn't guarantee you get there if the pace strands you too far back. A good closer has to have that internal clock NOT to be stranded. His internal splits were as good as any winner of the 9f preps.
Mendelssohn-132.6
Vino-133.3
Audible-134
Good Magic-134.4
Justify-135
Runaway Ghost-135.4
Magnum-135.8
Noble Indy-138
My boy Jack(projected to 9f)-138.4
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old time revival was out there winging for more than 1/2 the race setting the early fast splits. i mean, OTR was ahead by 5-10L pushing himself.....lol
vino clearly outkicked enticed home and opened up late, but enticed was in the second spot in the fast splits, albeit well a behind second early on, so i don;t know how much he was used early but it was clearly more than vino.
i'm not going to yell at people for betting vino.,...but i just think he'll be more overvalued than he should be. i don;t buy into a regression in the TB derby.....i thin he's not good enough..but obv he could have had an off day...hahaha...............but this coupled with for lack of better words.."the wood curse" has me looking elsewhere
