I agree (not surprisingly) about the importance of odds lines. However, from what I recall of my exposure to Cramer's book, it was too qualitative or arbitrary for my tastes. My hat is off to those who can manage to meld quantitative data and qualitative or intuitive observations into consistently accurate, reliable probabilities, but I don't think that I'll ever be included in that group.
As long as multi-factored statistics and probabilities by themselves do a similarly effective job for me (as they do) in weighting handicapping elements, assigning odds, and differentiating race scenarios, and also (in the event of significant negative deviations from performance) indicate which part of the handicapping model is responsible (so as to allow for any needed adjustments), I'll continue to use them (without requiring a computer).
Last edited by Overlay; 07-22-2010 at 06:31 PM.
|