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Old 02-03-2012, 09:33 AM   #91
Dave Schwartz
 
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,930
Seems we still have a problem. How will our system ever find overlays at anything except higher-priced horses?

I mean, even if Able is "excellent" all the way across...



... he isn't good enough for us to find him as an overlay at (say) 4/5.

But the solution is an easy one because we have total control of our handicapping system.



What I have done here is 2 changes.

1. I opened the 1-5 scale to go higher in 3 categories, so that a speed, pace, and class are now 1-8. Just imagine Winning Colors entered in an NW4 race after winning the Ky Derby. Such a horse might easily be an "8" - far above "excellent." Maybe even a "9."

2. I have tinkered with the weights for the factors. Who says that they even have to be 0-100?


The point is coming next.
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