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[Frankie D]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The Principle
1a. The greater the percentage of pool represented by the horses we are going to bet, the less money we should bet in the race.

1b. The greater the percentage of pool represented by the horses we are NOT going to bet, the MORE money we should bet in the race.

2a. The greater the percentage of pool represented by the horses we call "contenders," the less money we should bet in the race.

2b. The greater the percentage of pool represented by the horses we call "NON-CONTENDERS," the MORE money we should bet in the race.

(The important principles 1b and 2b.)

Steps
1. Determine percent of pool NOT BET. ("PctNotBet")
2. Determine percent of pool NOT CONTENDER. ("PctNotCont")

RaceBet= $100 x PctNotBet x PctNotCont

Two Examples
Example 1
You are betting 40% of the pool, and your contenders make up 70% of the pool.

PctNotBet=60%
PctNotCont=30%

$100 x 60% x 30% = $18.

Example 2
You are betting 30% of the pool, and your contenders make up 48% of the pool.

PctNotBet=70%
PctNotCont=52%

$100 x 70% x 52% = $36

My experience has been that the higher the RaceBetAmt the more profitable the race is. Conversely, the smaller the RaceBetAmt amount, the lower the profit.

There is a tipping point at which the races produce a loss.

In my own handicapping, I have found that the tipping point to be $30. Wagers below $30 lose money, and the lower the bet size goes, the more the lose.


SUMMARY
What happens is that you wind up betting more money on the races where you've eliminated the greatest part of the pool.

The hardest part of this entire process is step #1 (picking good non-contenders). The other two steps are really pretty easy.


Perhaps this will provide you with some ideas.


Best Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Very interesting.

But what is going to be the best way to do the math for percentage of the pool with the tote flashing '0'? Got anything besides just totaling the number and dividing, or am I missing something easier on the last minute 'fly'?

Also, your 'tipping point' below which successful play becomes increasingly impossible - what is the logic or reason that this happens and why does it happen decreasing below the $30 mark in your example?

...and you say this point is in application of YOUR handicapping, would you expect variation for others?

...and is there anything that explains the different 'tipping points' significance between players?

Thanks in advance, Dave. This is gold for me and I appreciate you and the whole forum.