Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider
I have an idea for a new angle and was wondering how many races I would need to validate it?
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Unfortunately, I don't think you'll ever get a "definitive" number of races to determine if the angle has a true edge or if the results are just due to luck alone. At best, you can run tests that will give you a sense of how likely it is that your angle was due to luck, and then it's up to you to determine if you're willing to accept that chance couldn't have caused the results.
Most tests will depend on the number of events (races) played, as well as the average odds you receive on your bets. For longer priced horses, you will need a much larger sample size to feel confident that your results weren't due to luck.
Take a look at this post by Joseph Buchdahl on evaluating betting strategies:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...L2722PUAZM4Q8Q. In general, his articles are pretty great, though they mostly cover fixed odds betting on shorter priced events.
He also has another article on using the difference between the price available at the time you placed your bet vs the closing price to more quickly determine if you have a strategy with true edge. Though it was written in reference to fixed odds wagering, I suspect it could still be useful for parimutuel wagering. Article here:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...6JWJM5YKEJUWKQ
