Originally Posted by Track Phantom
Sorry for the redboarding here. I know people hate that.
I had the late pick 4 for $1 last night. Canterbury (my home track for many years) can be a great track or a rotten track to play. There are elements that I like but I don't like that the betting is mostly spot on.
In the race you were talking about, with the #4 as the heavy favorite, I had that race 7,4,5,2 in my analysis. I thought the #4 was vulnerable, and in both of my pick 4 tickets I went 4 deep and got lucky with the 17-1 winner.
On the negative side, last week I played a pick 4: 3/3,4/ALL/ALL. The #3 won the first leg at 7-2. #4 won the second leg at 24-1. I got a 9-1 (from 10-1 morning line) in the third leg. I was certain I had the whole pool into the last leg. However, here were the numbers, morning line and pick 4 payouts if i can recall:
1: 5-1 morning line (off at 3-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
2: 8-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
3: 4-1 morning line (off at 9-2), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
4: 6-1 morning line (off at 7-1), 3 tickets alive for $3,500 payout for .50c
5: 2-1 morning line (off at 2-1), 2 tickets alive for $5,300 payout for .50c
6: 3-1 morning line (off at 4-1), 1 ticket alive for $11,600 payout for .50c
So, how random is this? The two longest shots on the morning line, and at the off odds, pay the lowest in the p4. As luck would have it, the 6 led the entire way and was tagged late by the #4. I did hedge with the 2 and 4 winning and made an extra $1,000 in the race but it was still a tough pill to swallow. I think the win parlay was something like $12k.
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