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Race six is a mile and a sixteenth grass affair for two year old state bred fillies.
1. Solib - The first race for this daughter of American Pharaoh was poor but to be fair against open company and the only horse she beat was another NY bred named Helen's Spirit. She started ok, took a small bump from inside, then a horse from the outside crossed and pushed her in, where she steadied and lost her early momentum. She went wide around the turn and wide down the stretch and finished 20 back from the leader. She was less than a length behind Next Tuesday, and Next Tuesday came back to finish second to Take the Backroads next out. She might not be as bad as she looks on paper. Dam was more of a dirt sprinter at allowance level she has two siblings who have not made it to the races as yet, which seems to be a red flag to me. American Pharoah as sire seems to be the hope at 20% grass routes and 12% first turf.
2. Sweet Sugar Baby - She ran well and third to the remarkable Ready A. P. first out. She sprinted to an early lead with RAP stumbled out of the gate, she was headed by one horse then RAP swept past them both and took off easily. Meanwhile, another horse passed SSB and she was fourth but she kept on with that one and they both passed the tiring Dan that song. Ready A. P. came back to run second in a stakes against the boys (Run Curtis Run) so she lost to a good one. She lost to another good one and heavily favored horse in Lao Ban's legacy at Saratoga. She broke well from the rail but didn't have as much early speed as Lao Ban or Sugar and Speights early. Staying inside she was clean of any kickback and coming out of the turn, she caught S&S and passed her to take second but was no match for the winner. Dam was a sprinter running early and finally winning at Presque. She eventually tried grass sprinting and one dirt unsuccessfully. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters record in turf sprints (3 1-0-1) but no routes. She has sibling (El Hefe) who (3 1-1-1) ran third in a dirt route stakes at Camarero. Sire 7% turf and 4% first turf not so encouraging.
3. What love looks like - A FTS daughter of English Channel, has a hot Todd and Irad on her back. I've heard it said that English Channel offspring need time to develop and that may be the case with her. Dam was more of a sprinter and decent earner ($110K). Dan has 1 winner from 2 starters (10 4-0-2) but all on dirt and only did well in sprints. She is half to La Fuerza a NY dirt sprinter primarily and good earner ($260K). Sire 15% and 10% turf could improve this ones distance challenge. I watched two workouts, the one on dirt was ok but less impressive than the one on grass. I can't describe it well but she looked happier to run on grass than dirt and more interested, she looked to be passing the inside horse out of the turn, though did hesitate a little allowing the inside horse to come back. She has long strides so I am guessing the route will suit her.
4. False Hope - A FTS daughter of Normandy Invasion gets a hot Luis Saez in the saddle. Dam ran second to last and last in two starts. Dam has 8 winners from 9 starters (32 2-3-7) is so so for routes but she is far better with grass sprints (28 4-4-2). Normandy Invasion is (58 1-7-7) and 0% first turf, I think that says enough about pedigree. Trainer is (24 0-1-1) with FTS. The grass workout for this one to me looks like she is on the smaller side, and maybe bred more for sprinting. She ran ok outside another but nothing super impressive about her focus or determination.
5. Cupere - A FTS daughter of Cupid goes with Barclay and Manny in the irons. Dam never raced, while Twin Spires says she has 2 winners from 2 starters (11 3-0-2) there are others from Brazil that I think were not counted. She is half to Ivar (9 5-0-1) and $689K in earnings. Cupid shows a turf sprint and route OTM but that is not enough data and his Sire Tapit surely has produced versatile horses. Barclay is 6% FTS. She appears to be another small filly and the workout was in the slop with a slow time, but she appeared focused early in the video.
6. Oak Love a Fight - On debut in a turf sprint she ran a credible third to a heavily favored Derrynane. Derrynane came back in an open stakes to run fifth to Chi town Lady. In that first race, she was slow early and there was a ton of dirt flying around her, she was last going into the turn put passed two horses on the inside during the turn. Facing a wall of horse flesh, the jockey wisely took her outside where she a started a running. She was passing horses down the lane and gaining on the second horse with every stride, to miss second by a length. On the run out she kept at the same pace as the leader quite a ways eyeballing the winner as if to say, I will see you again. 1:06 seems a tad slow but 3 year old fillies ran 1:05.60, so not super slow. Her first workout video saw her swing a little wide out of the turn leading Wick Loves a Fight. She was toting a chubby rider and seemed to be running strong with him, but she kept moving out further and further away from the rail, more just ambling out than tired. In her other video, she had a lead early on but WLF ran her down. Dam won $72K in 56 races mostly at Turf Paradise and Canterbury. Breeding is not screaming out grass or routing but she ran so well in that turf sprint that I think she must have a chance today.
7. Preposterous - A FTS daughter of Union Rags goes for Saffie Joseph with Joel as her jockey. Dam record (10 1-1-2) saw her win on the grass after many losses and had her place in an allowance turf mile. This is her first foal. Union Rags 6% and 4% first turf is not great but he had a grass winner earlier this year that I dismissed because of these stats. Saffie is 12% with FTS, but I want to say Andy Serling had some Saffie FTS stats that were poor, but I forget what they were. It may pay to listen to him today. There were 4 videos of her workouts. Videos on dirt saw her looking sharp and not wanting to get passed when headed for most of the stretch with the exception of Eldon's Prince (Black Type winner at GP) who passed her mid stretch but could maintain only a small lead. The grass work she looked a little rank in the turn with her head up and tilted inside glaring at the other horse, down the stretch she got it together and appears to have a nice long stride.
8. Waterville - On debut she ran against open company in a MSW $100K. She broke a little slow that day, was horsing around, bumping with a horse or two at the back into the first turn and a little beyond. The winner had a worse start and they were running in tandem on the turn but while Blissful took off, she just sat back and ran on, never getting close to the top five horses. Against state bred company this daughter of Kitten's Joy certainly merits a second chance. Dam record (12 4-0-2) $193K saw her loving the grass at Monmouth winning two stakes (Boiling springs G II) but not so hot at Saratoga and Belmont. The Dam has 4 winners from 7 starters (19 3-3-3) and she has some impressive foals (Sea Foam & Straw into Gold) who were good earners of over $20K a race.
9. Princess in Paradise - She bobbled at the start of that race against RAP then broke in forcing RAP back. She ran inside for a while but couldn't keep up with fast sprinters, coming out of the turn she wasn't that far back of Sweet Sugar, but lost ground to that one tiring late and 7L + back of her. Dam had 2 wins in 31 tries (both on grass) earning $62K. Dam has two other foals whose record is (14 1-1-1) with a dirt ITM. (3 0-0-0) on grass which is not a lot of data. Sire side gives some small added hope 6.3% but positive ROI and 4% first turf. Maker is a hot trainer but has cooled a little the last two weeks
10. Saratoga Chrome - Quoting the results of her 5.5F sprint: SARATOGA CHROME was void of speed while ridden along on the outside, went three to four wide on the turn, came six wide into the stretch and showed little. November Rein won that race and I consider her good for a NY filly but she showed nothing, a route may be different. In a grass workout, she looked to be larger than her foe, with long easy strides and while neither horse was working too hard, she maintained a small lead on the other while the other one and her jockey appeared to be more focused. Dam never raced but has 3 winners from 5 starters (10 0-1-5) turf route record but was better in turf sprints (8 2-2-0). Sire is 6% and 2% first turf.
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