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Old 07-13-2022, 09:19 AM   #40
MPRanger
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
____________


this is not directly re my OP but:


I personally believe that more could be profitable betting racing if they dramatically increased their selectivity

if they limited themselves to only those races in which they have the most confidence

but it's like that old commercial - was it Doritos__? which stated______ "nobody can eat just one"

an alternative would be to be bet much bigger on those races where you have high confidence - maybe 10 times as much as on the other races



.



A simillar but more specific thing than having confidence is to
quantify your opinion using an oddsline. Then you can compare
your opinion to the toteboard. If you have a perceived edge then
you can bet whatever the proper portion is relative to the odds you're
getting paid.

Arbitrarily betting 10 times more could have you either under
betting or over betting. Under betting isn't so bad but over
betting is a disaster.
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