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Originally Posted by thaskalos
As a bettor, I often ignore the horse's last race altogether...pretending that it doesn't even exist.
We have all been preconditioned to believe that the last race is the best indicator of a horse's form...and that type of thinking must be avoided if value is what we are looking for in this game.
Whether the last race is too good, or too bad, I ignore it...unless other proof exists to make me think that something has fundamentally changed with the horse.
The horse's last race is often only a mirage...
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Gus, regarding ignoring a horses last race out what would you say if that last race was that particular horses new top speed rating. I have not been able to verify via databsae but some texts suggest a top figure last time or worse yet a double top figure (2 races in a row) is a formula for a "bounce" due to maximum efforts being exerted, soley based on that horses race history. Bounce theory may be just old school imaginations by others but some think it is a real factor for consideration, not the only factor. In this case would you still ignore the last race? Throw out as a non-contender or maybe a repeater?
