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Old 02-15-2018, 05:34 PM   #9
maddog42
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,357
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Definitely a worthy read. If you enjoy his chapter on Bayesian probability, you should try beating 538’s pro football algo next season. I hung in for a little while before blowing up completely after some overconfidence in games where key players were injured and the team won anyway. Their algo doesn’t take injuries into account at all. I overweighted their importance and lost some games I rated at 98% probability. Don’t do that.

I think you hit a zero by accident. The book was published in 2012.
I definitely goofed on the publication date, but not on his chances of Trump winning. Thanks for the correction and the worthy insights. Is their algorithm published or just described?
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Last edited by maddog42; 02-15-2018 at 05:37 PM. Reason: addition
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